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Monthly Numbers

Cash Flow Model

Monthly income versus expenses on a single property — the clearest read on whether a deal pencils month to month. Underwrite the property as a business: what comes in, what goes out, and what pays you at the end.

Best for

  • Investors who want to know what lands in the bank each month
  • First-time landlords sizing up their first door
  • Owners deciding whether to keep, refinance, or sell a rental

Use it when

  • Before making an offer on a single-family or small rental
  • When comparing a property’s rent against your financing cost
  • Annually, to compare your actuals against the original model

Run your numbers

Every figure updates as you type — the defaults are typical Indianapolis numbers.

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Does it pencil month-to-month?

Gross monthly income$1,550
Vacancy loss$109
Effective monthly income$1,442
Total monthly expenses$1,314
Monthly cash flow$127
Annual cash flow$1,528
Expense ratio91.2%

Indianapolis benchmarks

$100–200

Monthly cash flow per door many investors require after full reserves

40–50%

Healthy expense ratio (operating expenses ÷ effective income, before debt)

5–8%

Vacancy assumption for Indianapolis single-family rentals

8.3%

Share of annual income one vacancy month costs on a 12-month lease

The math behind this calculator

Every number in the tool above comes from these formulas — nothing hidden.

Effective income

Effective income = gross rent × (1 − vacancy rate) + other income

Vacancy turns the listed rent into the rent you actually collect. For Indianapolis single-family rentals, 5–8% is the standard assumption.

Net operating income

NOI = effective income − operating expenses (no mortgage payment)

Taxes, insurance, maintenance, reserves, and management — everything except principal and interest. NOI is the property’s income before financing.

Operating expense ratio

Expense ratio = operating expenses ÷ effective income

The fastest health check on a rental: what share of its income does the property burn to stay running? 40–50% is typical before debt.

Monthly cash flow

Cash flow = NOI − debt service

Debt service is principal and interest only. This is the number that hits your bank account every month.

Cash flow is the oxygen; everything else is the growth

Appreciation, equity paydown, and tax benefits build wealth over years — but cash flow is what keeps the property alive month to month. A rental with negative cash flow requires you to feed it; a rental with healthy cash flow feeds your reserves and then you. This model exists to tell you which one you’re buying, before you’re committed.

The discipline is simple: model the property as a standalone business. What does the business collect? What does the business spend? What’s left is what the business pays its owner — and the bank comes off the top, not from what’s "left over."

The income side

  • Gross potential income is every dollar the property could collect: rent plus other income — utility bill-backs, pet rent, storage, or late fees that are realistic, not theoretical.
  • Effective income subtracts vacancy: 5–8% for Indianapolis single-family rentals. One vacancy month on a 12-month lease costs 8.3% of annual income by itself — that’s the intuition behind the band.
  • Use the rent you can document today: a signed lease, or three real comparables within a mile at the same beds, baths, and condition. The rent that makes the deal work is not evidence.

The expense side: fixed, variable, and the invisible reserve

  • Fixed expenses are predictable and unglamorous: property taxes (pull the real parcel bill from the county auditor), insurance (get an actual landlord-policy quote), and HOA dues if any.
  • Variable expenses scale with the property: a maintenance reserve of 10–15% of collected rent covers routine repairs and builds toward capital items — roofs, furnaces, water heaters. Much of Indianapolis’s rental stock predates 1970; the reserve is not optional math.
  • Management runs 8–10% of collected rent if outsourced. Budget it even if you self-manage — it’s the market price of the job, and it keeps your return comparable to anyone else’s.
  • Utilities: Indianapolis landlords commonly carry water, sewer, and trash. Find out before closing, not at the first bill.

Reading the expense ratio

The operating expense ratio — expenses divided by effective income — is the fastest health check in rental analysis. Before debt, a well-run Indianapolis property typically operates in the 40–50% range with reserves included; the old "50% rule" of thumb says expenses eat about half of gross rent all-in, and it survives as a screen precisely because it’s roughly right.

A ratio persistently above that band means the property is fighting you: aging systems, high taxes, heavy turnover, or a rent below what the block supports. A suspiciously low ratio almost always means expenses are being underestimated — not that you found a magic property. When your model shows 30%, you’ve forgotten a category; go back and find it.

Debt service, and why small rate changes matter so much

On a $150,000 30-year loan, the payment moves from roughly $805 at 5% to roughly $998 at 7% — a $193 monthly swing on the same property. That single line can flip a deal from $250 a month of cash flow to $57. This is why the interest rate input deserves more attention than any other line on the financing side.

It’s also why a rate reset at refinance is the stress test that kills quiet deals. If your loan isn’t fixed for your expected hold, rerun this model at +1% and check whether the cash flow survives the reset.

Stress-testing the number

  • Rents down 10% — does it still pay you? Single-tenant properties concentrate all their risk in one lease signature.
  • Expenses up 10% — older housing stock will find ways to spend it.
  • One turnover per lease cycle: make-readies commonly run $1,000–$3,000 in paint, cleaning, and repairs, plus the vacancy months on either side.
  • Keep 3–6 months of full carrying cost in reserves per door — separate from the monthly math, but real enough to need.

Mistakes that quietly overstate cash flow

  • Modeling vacancy at zero — the most common single lie in rental analysis.
  • A $50–$100 maintenance line on a 70-year-old house — the second most common.
  • Forgetting the owner-paid utilities that Indianapolis landlords typically carry.
  • Using asking rents instead of signed leases as evidence.
  • Treating the security deposit as income. It isn’t; it’s a liability you’ll probably spend on the make-ready.

Common questions

How much cash flow should a rental produce per door?

After full reserves — maintenance, capex, management, and vacancy — many investors want at least $100–200 per month per unit in Indianapolis. Below that, one surprise repair erases a year of returns; far above that usually means you found real value or you’ve underestimated expenses. Check which one before you celebrate.

What is the 50% rule?

A rule of thumb holding that a rental’s operating expenses — including capital items — will consume roughly half of its gross rental income over time. It’s a screen, not an underwrite: real ratios run from about 35% on newer construction to 60%+ on older homes with owner-paid utilities. Use it to sanity-check this model, not replace it.

What is a good expense ratio?

Operating expenses divided by effective income. Before debt, roughly 40–50% with reserves included is typical for a well-run Indianapolis rental. Above 55–60% means the property burns income to stay standing; below 35% usually means the model is missing a category rather than the property being efficient.

Why include a maintenance reserve when nothing is broken?

Because something always is, eventually. Roofs last 20 years, furnaces 15–20, and water heaters 10 — and they fail on their own schedule, not yours. The reserve smooths those lumps into a monthly cost so a $6,000 roof is a plan instead of a crisis. Deals that only work with a $50 maintenance line work until the first water heater.

Should I budget property management if I plan to self-manage?

Yes — 8–10% of collected rent is the market price of the work, and including it does two things: it lets you compare your deal to any other investor’s honestly, and it shows you exactly what hiring a manager would cost later. If the deal only works when you work for free, that’s worth knowing on day one.

My cash flow is negative — is the deal automatically bad?

Not automatically, but the burden of proof shifts to you. Negative cash flow only makes sense with a deliberate thesis: strong expected appreciation, a documented value-add rent play, or a house hack where you’re the "tenant" absorbing the loss as your housing cost. Without one of those, negative cash flow is paying monthly to speculate — and this calculator is telling you so.

How do I track whether the model was right?

Keep a property-level P&L — rent collected, every expense by category — and compare it to this model at each year-end. The gap between the two is your education: expense ratios that run hotter than modeled mean the reserve needs raising; rents that outran the model mean you underwrote the neighborhood well. Austin’s investor clients get a yearly review against the original numbers.

These calculators are educational tools. Good underwriting still depends on accurate rents, expenses, financing, repairs, vacancy, management, and local market judgment.

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